Franchise Unit Survival Rates: Which Systems Are Losing Locations
A franchise's Item 7 shows you what you'll pay to open. Its Item 20 shows you whether locations are staying open. Of the 155 franchise brands with verifiable unit data, 19 lost more than 5% of their system between the 2022 and 2024 FDD filings — including 3 that lost more than 15%. The franchise fee doesn't tell you this. The FDD does.
Critical Decline: Losing 15%+ of System (2022–2024)
These 3 brands lost more than 15% of their location count in two FDD filing periods. A system that loses 15%+ of its franchisees is experiencing accelerating closure — whether from underperforming economics, post-COVID demand shifts, or structural category decline. Brokers will still pitch these brands. Item 20 is the counter-argument.
Moderate Contraction: Losing 5–15% of System
These 16 brands are contracting but not collapsing — yet. A 5–10% decline per two-year period compounds: a system at 800 units losing 7% per period is at 693 units in four years. Declining systems also affect your exit: harder to resell a franchise when the buyer's broker can show them a shrinking network.
| Brand | Category | Net Change | Current Units | Investment Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fantastic Sams | Personal Services | -14.4% | 512 | $172K–$462K |
| CycleBar | Fitness | -14.3% | 189 | $411K–$1110K |
| Steak 'n Shake | QSR | -9.9% | 436 | $1344K–$2340K |
| Code Ninjas | Education | -9.4% | 244 | $175K–$298K |
| Merry Maids | Home Services | -9.3% | 802 | $127K–$170K |
| College Hunks Hauling Junk & Moving | Home Services | -7.8% | 190 | $203K–$356K |
| GNC | Retail | -7.7% | 2,140 | $172K–$449K |
| Checkers/Rally's | QSR | -7.0% | 785 | $640K–$2270K |
| RE/MAX | Real Estate | -6.6% | 3,150 | $45K–$246K |
| HomeVestors of America | Real Estate | -6.3% | 1,003 | $108K–$477K |
| Huntington Learning Centers | Education | -6.2% | 259 | $159K–$298K |
| Club Z! | Education | -5.8% | 328 | $41K–$57K |
| Snap Fitness | Fitness | -5.3% | 493 | $431K–$1118K |
| Supercuts | Personal Services | -5.2% | 1,801 | $186K–$323K |
| Denny's | Food | -5.2% | 1,334 | $1618K–$3057K |
| F45 Training | Fitness | -5.0% | 753 | $349K–$786K |
Investment Risk Matrix: High Cost + Declining System
The highest-risk investments are not necessarily the most expensive — they're the ones combining high upfront cost with a contracting system. A declining system compounds your risk: you paid $500K+ to join a network whose economics weren't keeping locations open. These are the brands where the Item 7 investment and Item 20 closure rate most urgently need to be read together.
Survival Rate by Category: Which Sectors Are Contracting
Not all contraction is equal. Some categories have structural headwinds (in-person fitness, hair care) that affect all brands in the sector — not just underperforming individual operators. When a category averages negative net growth, it means more locations are closing than opening across the board. That's a category call, not just a brand call.
| Category | Brands Tracked | Avg Net Change | % Contracting | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate | 5 | -3.4% | 80% | Declining |
| Retail | 5 | -1.5% | 60% | Flat/mixed |
| Personal Services | 12 | -0.1% | 25% | Flat/mixed |
| Business Services | 5 | +0.1% | 40% | Stable |
| Home Services | 28 | +0.1% | 32% | Stable |
| Staffing | 1 | +0.4% | 0% | Stable |
| Casual Dining | 1 | +0.6% | 0% | Stable |
| QSR | 30 | +0.6% | 40% | Stable |
| Automotive | 13 | +2.2% | 31% | Stable |
| Education | 11 | +4.0% | 27% | Stable |
| Fitness | 13 | +5.5% | 54% | Expanding |
| Food | 17 | +6.8% | 29% | Expanding |
| Hospitality | 4 | +7.9% | 25% | Expanding |
| Senior Care | 3 | +10.4% | 0% | Expanding |
| Pet | 6 | +11.7% | 0% | Expanding |
| Health and Wellness | 1 | +14.2% | 0% | Expanding |
What Unit Contraction Actually Means for a Franchisee
Why Declining Systems Are Dangerous
A shrinking franchise network creates a compounding problem for existing owners. Corporate revenue (from royalties) falls as units close, reducing the marketing fund, reducing tech investment, and reducing negotiating power with suppliers. The franchisees who remain are subsidizing a smaller and smaller shared infrastructure — while their exit options narrow because a declining brand is harder to resell.
The most dangerous scenario: a brand losing 10–15% per period while maintaining a $300K–$500K upfront investment requirement. The Item 7 hasn't adjusted to reflect the economic reality surfaced in Item 20.
What Stable and Growing Systems Signal
Unit growth is a proxy for franchisee profitability. When a system grows consistently — not through discounting franchise fees but through organic renewals and new sign-ups — it suggests existing franchisees are hitting breakeven and new buyers see a viable business model. Systems adding 5%+ per year are doing this at scale.
Pet franchises (+11.7% avg), Food brands (+6%), and Education (+4%) are the strongest categories in this dataset. These align with consumer spend trends post-2022 — pet humanisation, experiential dining, and supplemental education demand.
The Item 20 Due Diligence Checklist
Before signing a franchise agreement, use Item 20 to answer these four questions. Your franchise attorney should pull this directly from the FDD, not from a broker-prepared summary.
- Net unit change over 3 years — Is the total count up, flat, or down?
- Churned vs. opened ratio — Are new openings replacing closed locations, or exceeding them?
- Reason for terminations — Does Item 20 disclose why franchisees left? Voluntary transfer vs. franchisor-terminated is a critical distinction.
- Current franchisee contact list — Item 20 includes current franchisee names and numbers. Call 5–10 of them. Ask directly: "Would you sign again?"
Full Ranked List: All 155 Brands by Net Unit Change
Sorted from most contracting to fastest growing. Brands with fewer than 50 units excluded (percentage swings on small systems can be misleading from a single closing).
| # | Brand | Category | Net Change | Total Units | Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weed Man | Home Services | -52.5% | 121 | $81K–$109K |
| 2 | 9Round | Fitness | -39.5% | 200 | $149K–$416K |
| 3 | Amazing Lash Studio | Personal Services | -23.3% | 201 | $464K–$720K |
| 4 | Fantastic Sams | Personal Services | -14.4% | 512 | $172K–$462K |
| 5 | CycleBar | Fitness | -14.3% | 189 | $411K–$1110K |
| 6 | Steak 'n Shake | QSR | -9.9% | 436 | $1344K–$2340K |
| 7 | Code Ninjas | Education | -9.4% | 244 | $175K–$298K |
| 8 | Merry Maids | Home Services | -9.3% | 802 | $127K–$170K |
| 9 | College Hunks Hauling Junk & Moving | Home Services | -7.8% | 190 | $203K–$356K |
| 10 | GNC | Retail | -7.7% | 2,140 | $172K–$449K |
| 11 | Checkers/Rally's | QSR | -7.0% | 785 | $640K–$2270K |
| 12 | RE/MAX | Real Estate | -6.6% | 3,150 | $45K–$246K |
| 13 | HomeVestors of America | Real Estate | -6.3% | 1,003 | $108K–$477K |
| 14 | Huntington Learning Centers | Education | -6.2% | 259 | $159K–$298K |
| 15 | Club Z! | Education | -5.8% | 328 | $41K–$57K |
| 16 | Snap Fitness | Fitness | -5.3% | 493 | $431K–$1118K |
| 17 | Supercuts | Personal Services | -5.2% | 1,801 | $186K–$323K |
| 18 | Denny's | Food | -5.2% | 1,334 | $1618K–$3057K |
| 19 | F45 Training | Fitness | -5.0% | 753 | $349K–$786K |
| 20 | Massage Envy | Fitness | -4.2% | 1,009 | $719K–$1081K |
| 21 | Century 21 Real Estate | Real Estate | -4.0% | 1,734 | $35K–$466K |
| 22 | Maaco | Automotive | -3.6% | 363 | $196K–$3994K |
| 23 | Interim HealthCare | Home Services | -3.5% | 230 | $156K–$239K |
| 24 | Molly Maid | Home Services | -3.5% | 448 | $140K–$197K |
| 25 | KFC | QSR | -3.4% | 3,638 | $303K–$1434K |
| 26 | KFC (Traditional) | QSR | -3.3% | 3,638 | $1053K–$3772K |
| 27 | Subway | QSR | -3.2% | 19,502 | $263K–$630K |
| 28 | Schlotzsky's | Food | -2.8% | 317 | $600K–$1500K |
| 29 | Nurse Next Door | Home Services | -2.8% | 71 | $119K–$217K |
| 30 | Sir Speedy | Business Services | -2.3% | 129 | $252K–$299K |
| 31 | Applebee's | Food | -2.3% | 1,510 | $2941K–$4679K |
| 32 | AlphaGraphics | Business Services | -2.2% | 227 | $296K–$379K |
| 33 | Coldwell Banker Commercial | Real Estate | -2.2% | 136 | $36K–$734K |
| 34 | Orangetheory Fitness | Fitness | -2.2% | 1,298 | $822K–$1377K |
| 35 | 1-800-GOT-JUNK? | Home Services | -2.0% | 146 | $184K–$294K |
| 36 | SpeeDee Oil Change & Auto Service | Automotive | -1.9% | 75 | $291K–$1972K |
| 37 | Sonic Drive-In | QSR | -1.7% | 3,461 | $1676K–$3141K |
| 38 | Hardee's | QSR | -1.6% | 1,571 | $1375K–$2637K |
| 39 | Wendy's | QSR | -1.6% | 5,933 | $1524K–$2992K |
| 40 | PostNet | Retail | -1.5% | 198 | $230K–$297K |
| 41 | Arby's | QSR | -1.4% | 3,365 | $862K–$2451K |
| 42 | Matco Tools | Automotive | -1.2% | 1,829 | $108K–$383K |
| 43 | Burger King | QSR | -1.1% | 6,701 | $2049K–$4706K |
| 44 | Jamba | Food | -1.0% | 727 | $469K–$806K |
| 45 | Stanley Steemer | Home Services | -0.7% | 267 | $158K–$522K |
| 46 | Motel 6 | Hospitality | -0.7% | 1,195 | $195K–$8239K |
| 47 | Wendy's | QSR | -0.5% | 5,933 | $1524K–$2992K |
| 48 | Captain D's | QSR | -0.5% | 530 | $899K–$1354K |
| 49 | Anytime Fitness | Fitness | -0.3% | 2,301 | $459K–$908K |
| 50 | Circle K | Retail | -0.3% | 6,125 | $1464K–$2735K |
| 51 | Mosquito Joe | Home Services | -0.2% | 417 | $151K–$193K |
| 52 | Big O Tires | Automotive | -0.2% | 461 | $512K–$1883K |
| 53 | Baskin-Robbins | Food | -0.2% | 976 | $307K–$623K |
| 54 | The Maids | Home Services | 0.0% | 369 | $118K–$141K |
| 55 | Wild Birds Unlimited | Retail | 0.0% | 340 | $227K–$379K |
| 56 | Precision Tune Auto Care | Automotive | 0.0% | 229 | $182K–$478K |
| 57 | Ziebart | Automotive | 0.0% | 96 | $450K–$924K |
| 58 | Great Clips | Personal Services | +0.3% | 4,439 | $188K–$420K |
| 59 | Jiffy Lube | Automotive | +0.3% | 2,075 | $236K–$453K |
| 60 | Del Taco | QSR | +0.3% | 594 | $1497K–$3321K |
| 61 | Express Employment Professionals | Staffing | +0.4% | 791 | $31K–$391K |
| 62 | Gold's Gym | Fitness | +0.5% | 211 | $1794K–$4537K |
| 63 | Comfort Inn | Hospitality | +0.5% | 1,664 | $319K–$2346K |
| 64 | IHOP | Casual Dining | +0.6% | 1,703 | $435K–$4041K |
| 65 | Sandler | Business Services | +0.7% | 138 | $78K–$102K |
| 66 | McDonald's | QSR | +0.8% | 13,559 | $1471K–$2728K |
| 67 | Comfort Keepers | Home Services | +0.8% | 624 | $120K–$329K |
| 68 | Midas | Automotive | +0.8% | 975 | $342K–$925K |
| 69 | Jan-Pro | Home Services | +0.9% | 108 | $130K–$422K |
| 70 | Home Instead | Home Services | +1.0% | 625 | $91K–$270K |
| 71 | Sylvan Learning | Education | +1.1% | 478 | $108K–$239K |
| 72 | Mosquito Authority | Home Services | +1.1% | 547 | $54K–$128K |
| 73 | Dairy Queen | QSR | +1.4% | 74 | $1653K–$2782K |
| 74 | Bojangles | QSR | +1.4% | 825 | $2797K–$3664K |
| 75 | Bark Busters | Pet | +1.5% | 133 | $78K–$117K |
| 76 | Panera Bread | Food | +1.6% | 2,206 | $1267K–$4651K |
| 77 | Little Caesars | QSR | +1.6% | 4,285 | $447K–$1817K |
| 78 | Jimmy John's | QSR | +1.7% | 2,689 | $366K–$728K |
| 79 | Kumon | Education | +1.8% | 1,689 | $73K–$165K |
| 80 | Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices | Real Estate | +1.9% | 268 | $43K–$88K |
| 81 | Meineke Car Care Centers | Automotive | +2.0% | 716 | $225K–$1201K |
| 82 | Minuteman Press | Business Services | +2.0% | 1,016 | $180K–$226K |
| 83 | Waxing the City | Personal Services | +2.0% | 151 | $311K–$646K |
| 84 | Batteries Plus | Retail | +2.0% | 737 | $263K–$497K |
| 85 | Red Roof Inn | Hospitality | +2.1% | 619 | $6008K–$8900K |
| 86 | Ace Handyman Services | Home Services | +2.1% | 387 | $132K–$224K |
| 87 | Taco Bell | Food | +2.1% | 7,847 | $287K–$856K |
| 88 | Grease Monkey | Automotive | +2.2% | 371 | $291K–$917K |
| 89 | Auntie Anne's | Food | +2.2% | 1,193 | $156K–$638K |
| 90 | Pet Supplies Plus | Pet | +2.2% | 735 | $537K–$1965K |
| 91 | Papa John's | QSR | +2.2% | 3,291 | $261K–$853K |
| 92 | Taco Bell (Traditional) | QSR | +2.2% | 7,847 | $935K–$4310K |
| 93 | PuroClean | Home Services | +2.2% | 411 | $101K–$137K |
| 94 | Domino's Pizza | QSR | +2.3% | 7,068 | $156K–$744K |
| 95 | The UPS Store | Business Services | +2.3% | 5,365 | $216K–$609K |
| 96 | The Goddard School | Education | +2.3% | 642 | $953K–$1363K |
| 97 | Dunkin' | QSR | +2.4% | 8,499 | $527K–$1833K |
| 98 | Five Guys | QSR | +2.4% | 1,558 | $978K–$1376K |
| 99 | Mathnasium | Education | +2.7% | 999 | $113K–$150K |
| 100 | Zaxby's | QSR | +3.0% | 969 | $1445K–$3811K |
| 101 | Firehouse Subs | QSR | +3.1% | 1,248 | $380K–$796K |
| 102 | Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | QSR | +3.3% | 3,177 | $1222K–$3923K |
| 103 | Right at Home | Home Services | +3.6% | 551 | $92K–$165K |
| 104 | Lawn Doctor | Home Services | +3.6% | 653 | $150K–$177K |
| 105 | McAlister's Deli | Food | +3.8% | 560 | $750K–$1750K |
| 106 | Primrose Schools | Education | +3.8% | 525 | $743K–$8595K |
| 107 | Griswold Home Care | Senior Care | +3.9% | 193 | $100K–$181K |
| 108 | Marco's Pizza | Food | +4.0% | 1,159 | $287K–$807K |
| 109 | Cold Stone Creamery | Food | +4.1% | 994 | $336K–$655K |
| 110 | Tim Hortons | QSR | +4.3% | 693 | $988K–$3313K |
| 111 | Planet Fitness | Fitness | +4.4% | 2,568 | $1525K–$5222K |
| 112 | Camp Bow Wow | Pet | +4.5% | 223 | $944K–$1200K |
| 113 | Sola Salon Studios | Personal Services | +4.6% | 729 | $1182K–$1939K |
| 114 | Five Star Painting | Home Services | +4.7% | 245 | $77K–$185K |
| 115 | The Woodhouse Day Spa | Personal Services | +4.8% | 88 | $1482K–$2698K |
| 116 | Drybar | Personal Services | +4.8% | 176 | $410K–$1029K |
| 117 | Homewatch CareGivers | Home Services | +4.9% | 224 | $122K–$178K |
| 118 | Chick-fil-A | QSR | +4.9% | 2,684 | $427K–$2340K |
| 119 | European Wax Center | Personal Services | +4.9% | 1,067 | $328K–$837K |
| 120 | Kiddie Academy | Education | +5.2% | 345 | $405K–$915K |
| 121 | Rainbow International Restoration | Home Services | +5.4% | 330 | $159K–$331K |
| 122 | Culver's | QSR | +5.6% | 997 | $2643K–$8573K |
| 123 | Hand and Stone Massage and Facial Spa | Personal Services | +5.9% | 595 | $579K–$872K |
| 124 | Senior Helpers | Home Services | +6.0% | 367 | $149K–$221K |
| 125 | Phenix Salon Suites | Personal Services | +6.4% | 399 | $721K–$2425K |
| 126 | Mr. Handyman | Home Services | +6.4% | 347 | $143K–$180K |
| 127 | Charleys Cheesesteaks | Food | +6.8% | 813 | $204K–$694K |
| 128 | Christian Brothers Automotive | Automotive | +7.3% | 302 | $550K–$680K |
| 129 | BrightStar Care | Home Services | +7.3% | 408 | $132K–$235K |
| 130 | Dog Training Elite | Pet | +7.6% | 395 | $174K–$203K |
| 131 | Valvoline Instant Oil Change | Automotive | +8.0% | 2,039 | $192K–$640K |
| 132 | Sport Clips | Personal Services | +8.1% | 1,584 | $189K–$355K |
| 133 | Crumbl | Food | +8.2% | 1,059 | $816K–$1443K |
| 134 | Benjamin Franklin Plumbing | Home Services | +8.4% | 363 | $85K–$205K |
| 135 | Paul Davis Restoration | Home Services | +8.6% | 266 | $299K–$805K |
| 136 | Assisting Hands Home Care | Home Services | +8.7% | 207 | $97K–$180K |
| 137 | Always Best Care Senior Services | Home Services | +9.4% | 275 | $90K–$146K |
| 138 | FirstLight Home Care | Senior Care | +11.0% | 238 | $127K–$219K |
| 139 | Jersey Mike's | QSR | +11.7% | 2,989 | $186K–$1418K |
| 140 | Rumble Boxing | Fitness | +12.9% | 85 | $510K–$1141K |
| 141 | Crunch Fitness | Fitness | +13.0% | 423 | $928K–$3743K |
| 142 | Scooter's Coffee | Food | +13.2% | 849 | $955K–$1523K |
| 143 | Stretch Zone | Health and Wellness | +14.2% | 377 | $139K–$320K |
| 144 | Take 5 Oil Change | Automotive | +15.2% | 1,142 | $912K–$2054K |
| 145 | CarePatrol | Senior Care | +16.2% | 201 | $65K–$136K |
| 146 | Woof Gang Bakery | Pet | +16.5% | 236 | $184K–$507K |
| 147 | Club Pilates | Fitness | +17.5% | 1,029 | $385K–$839K |
| 148 | Nothing Bundt Cakes | Food | +18.1% | 660 | $667K–$907K |
| 149 | Nothing Bundt Cakes | Food | +18.6% | 660 | $667K–$907K |
| 150 | KidStrong | Education | +23.7% | 131 | $448K–$600K |
| 151 | British Swim School | Education | +25.2% | 258 | $122K–$168K |
| 152 | Wyndham Hotels & Resorts | Hospitality | +29.8% | 61 | $51919K–$94642K |
| 153 | Scenthound | Pet | +37.7% | 122 | $328K–$550K |
| 154 | Buffalo Wild Wings GO | Food | +43.6% | 140 | $564K–$1051K |
| 155 | Row House | Fitness | +94.4% | 54 | $277K–$500K |
Explore Individual Brand Data
Every brand in this table links to its full FDD data page — investment breakdown, royalty structure, Item 19 revenue data (where disclosed), and unit growth chart. Use the data, not a broker's pitch deck.
Browse all 155+ franchise brands →